Market Pivot: Rate-Cut Hopes, NZD Rally & Oil at the Edge

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Rate-Cut Ripples, Kiwi Resilience & Oil’s Make-or-Break Floor

Markets kicked off the week digesting softer U.S. ISM services data and fresh Fed-pause signals, sending equities higher and the dollar lower as rate-cut odds climbed. Meanwhile, despite New Zealand’s Q2 employment slipping short of forecasts, robust wage growth and hawkish RBNZ bets propelled the Kiwi into a surprise rally. On the commodity front, WTI crude tumbled to the $65.00–$65.30 zone—where a confluence of Fibonacci and trendline support will determine whether oil rebounds toward $68 or slides deeper toward $62. This issue arms you with both the macro narrative and pinpoint technical levels to trade each inflection with conviction.

⚡ Daily Broad Market Recap – August 5, 2025

• U.S. ISM services unexpectedly eased to 50.2 in July, knocking 10-year Treasury yields down 5 bps and stoking Fed-pause speculation.

• Equities rallied: the S&P 500 added 0.6%, the Nasdaq climbed 0.8%, and the Dow outperformed defensives.

• Commodities mixed: WTI crude slipped 1.5% on OPEC+ supply optimism, while gold held near $3,220.

🔥Kiwi Pops Higher Despite Dip in New Zealand’s Q2 Employment – August 6, 2025

• Q2 jobs growth disappointed with just 1,200 net hires versus 5,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.7%.

• Annual wage inflation accelerated to 4.1%, fueling bets on further RBNZ tightening and sending NZD/USD up 0.7% to 0.6190.

📊 WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) Has Dropped to a Key Support Zone

• WTI has fallen to the $65.00–$65.30 area, aligning with the 61.8% Fib retracement of June’s rally and an April rising trendline.

• A successful hold here could spark a short-covering rally toward $68.50, while a breakdown risks a slide to $62.00.

  Explore the Oil Setup

This issue weaves together U.S. rate-cut whispers, the Kiwi’s unexpected rally on soft jobs data, and WTI’s pivotal support test. Dive into our market recap for the full cross-asset pulse, explore why NZD/USD popped despite weaker employment, and study the precise oil price zone that will dictate crude’s next move. You’ll trade each inflection point with both strategic context and technical clarity.

Happy Trading!

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