Macro Moves & Market Triggers: Your Trading Map This Week

Author

FX Rocket Profits
August 25, 2025

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Powell’s Pivot, Kiwi’s Pullback & Bitcoin’s Neckline Test

Markets jolted into motion after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech signaled a potential policy shift. With the phrase “adjusting our policy stance” echoing through trading desks, the dollar slipped broadly as rate cut odds for September surged.

Technically, NZD/USD is approaching a key pullback zone near 0.5860, where the 38.2% Fib, pivot point, and channel midline converge—a classic decision area for bulls and bears. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is testing the neckline of a double top pattern around $114K. A break below could open the door to $110K or even $100K, while a bounce may retarget $117K and $120K.

This issue blends macro shifts with chart setups that demand attention. Whether you’re trading the Fed’s pivot or positioning around crypto compression, the levels are clear and the catalysts are live.

⚡ USD Slips After Powell Pivoted Closer to Rate Cuts

  • Powell’s Jackson Hole speech marked a dovish turn, citing employment risks and downplaying tariff-driven inflation.

  • The dollar dropped nearly 1% against major currencies, with traders now pricing in a 91% chance of a September rate cut.

  • Risk assets rallied, led by equities and crypto, while gold held steady.

📊 NZD/USD Nears Pullback Zone After USD Weakness

  • NZD/USD bounced 50 pips on Friday’s dollar drop and now hovers near 0.5860.

  • This zone aligns with the 38.2% Fib of August’s slide, the pivot point, and the channel midline.

  • A bearish rejection could send price back to 0.5800 or lower; a bullish breakout may target 0.5935 and 0.5950.

 📉 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Testing Reversal Pattern Neckline

  • BTC/USD has formed a double top on the 4-hour chart and is testing the neckline near $114K.

  • A break below could trigger a drop to $110K or even $100K; a bounce may retarget $117K, $120K, and record highs at $124K.

  • Watch for confirmation candles and volume spikes to validate direction.

This issue captures a pivotal moment: Powell’s dovish pivot, NZD/USD’s technical tension, and Bitcoin’s neckline test. Whether you’re trading FX or crypto, the setups are clean and the macro backdrop is shifting fast. Stay nimble, stay informed—and let the charts guide your next move.

Happy Trading!

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