Macro Calm, Technical Heat: AUD/USD Breakout & GBP/AUD Trendline Bounce

Author

FX Rocket Profits
August 13, 2025

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CPI Calm, Dollar Slide & Crosses Reclaim Long-Term Lanes

Markets swung into full risk-on mode as July’s CPI matched forecasts—headline inflation rose 0.2% month-on-month, core held at 3.1% year-on-year—confirming limited tariff pass-through and nudging Fed-cut bets higher. The dollar slid, U.S. equities hit fresh intraday highs, and Asian stocks rallied on an extended U.S.–China tariff truce. Technically, AUD/USD has reclaimed its long-term uptrend after breaking out of a months-old channel from .6425 and retesting the 50% Fibonacci retracement and old channel floor near .6550—a prime zone for a low-risk entry or a tactical fade. Meanwhile, GBP/AUD staged a textbook bounce off its rising trendline support around 2.0500, aligning with the 100-day SMA and setting its sights on the 2.0880 resistance cluster.

⚡ Daily Broad Market Recap – August 12, 2025

  • Asian equities led a global risk-on rally as traders awaited U.S. CPI, buoyed by an extended U.S.–China tariff truce.

  • Europe tread water on mixed German sentiment, while the Stoxx 600 eked out a slight gain.

  • U.S. CPI came in line; the dollar slid and risk assets surged to fresh highs.

🔥USD Weakened As U.S. July CPI Report Reflected Limited Tariffs Impact

  • Headline CPI rose 0.2% m/m and 2.7% y/y; core CPI held at 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y.

  • Energy prices fell 1.1% and goods affected by tariffs showed subdued gains.

  • The dollar weakened broadly as markets repriced an aggressive Fed-easing path.

📊 AUD/USD’s Long-Term Break and Retest Levels

  • AUD/USD broke out of its long-term ascending channel from .6425 and bounced back to .6550.

  • That zone lines up with the 50% retracement of July’s slide and former channel floor acting as resistance.

  • A move above .6600 would confirm a resumed uptrend; failure risks a drop back toward .6425.

    📉 GBP/AUD Long-Term Trendline Bounce

    • GBP/AUD has rebounded off a rising trendline near 2.0500, matching the 100-day SMA.

    • A break above 2.0880 (R1) exposes 2.1210 (R2) and the triangle’s highs; a slip below 2.0320 (S1) risks S2 at 2.0090.

    • Watch for confirmation via volume and momentum indicators on the daily chart.

This issue delivers the full spectrum: the pre-data market pulse, a high-stakes ascending triangle in Bitcoin, and a euro-sterling reversal pattern that’s ripe for either a breakout or a fade. Bookmark these levels and combine them with your macro view to trade the upcoming inflation prints and technical inflection points with confidence.

Happy Trading!

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