Inflation Shocks & Commodity Drops: Your Midweek Market Map

Author

FX Rocket Profits
September 25, 2025

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Aussie Inflation Surprise, Gold’s Pullback & Risk Sentiment in Flux

Markets were jolted by a hotter‑than‑expected Australian CPI print, which sent AUD surging across the board. Annual inflation rose to 4.2% — a 13‑month high — reigniting RBA rate hike speculation and flipping risk sentiment in Asia. The move came just as traders were digesting mixed global signals: softer U.S. housing data, firmer oil, and a dollar still struggling to find direction post‑FOMC.

Meanwhile, gold (XAU/USD) is pulling back again, now testing support near $1,880 after failing to hold above $1,900. With risk appetite improving and yields stabilizing, the yellow metal may need fresh catalysts to resume its climb.

The takeaway? Inflation surprises still matter — and technical levels are being tested across asset classes. Traders need to stay nimble as sentiment swings and narratives shift.

⚡Daily Broad Market Recap – September 23, 2025

  • U.S. housing starts fell 4.3% m/m, while building permits dropped 2.8%, adding to growth concerns.

  • Oil rose 1.5% on tighter inventories; gold slipped below $1,900 as risk appetite improved.

  • USD traded mixed, with gains vs. JPY and CHF, but losses vs. AUD and NZD.

🔥AUD Rallies as Australian Inflation Hits 13‑Month High

  • CPI rose 4.2% y/y in August (vs. 3.8% expected), driven by housing, fuel, and food costs.

  • AUD surged as traders priced in a higher chance of an RBA hike in Q4.

  • AUD/USD broke above 0.6700; AUD/JPY hit fresh monthly highs.

📊 Another Pullback for Gold (XAU/USD)

  • Gold is testing support near $1,880 after failing to hold above $1,900.

  • A bounce could retest $1,900 or $1,910; a break lower may open $1,860 or deeper.

This issue blends macro surprises with clean technical setups. The AUD’s inflation‑driven rally and gold’s pullback offer directional clues, while broader sentiment remains fluid. In a market full of mixed signals, clarity comes from watching price — and staying flexible.

Happy Trading!

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