Dollar Surges, Waller on the Hot Seat & AUD/CAD at the Edge

Author

FX Rocket Profits
August 09, 2025

In partnership with

ADP-Driven Dollar, Fed Chair Speculation & AUD/CAD’s Triangle Test

Markets hit pause mid-week after July’s ADP surprise—227K jobs versus 200K expected—sent 10-year yields spiking and the dollar broadly higher. Rumors that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is the frontrunner to replace Powell added fuel to the greenback’s rally. In sterling, the BOE’s 5-4 “hawkish cut” jolted GBP across the board, while AUD/CAD carved out a symmetrical triangle between 0.8940 support and 0.9000 resistance. Whether you’re fading extremes or front-running breakouts, today’s setups demand you marry macro conviction with exact technical levels.

⚡ Daily Broad Market Recap – August 7, 2025

  • ADP payrolls for July beat forecasts at 227K, driving 10-year Treasury yields up 7 bps to 3.17%.

  • U.S. equities wavered on renewed rate-hike jitters, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% and the Nasdaq flat.

  • Gold slipped to $3,190 as the dollar strengthened; WTI crude held near $66 amid OPEC+ supply talk.

🔥 Christopher Waller Frontrunning as Next Fed Chair

  • Prediction markets now price Waller above 50% odds to succeed Powell, up from just 16% a day earlier.

  • Trump advisors favor his forecasting-based approach and political independence over current-data tactics.

  • Waller and Vice Chair Bowman dissented at July’s meeting, calling for an immediate rate cut.

⚡GBP Rallies Sharply After BOE Delivered “Hawkish Cut” Decision

  • The BOE trimmed Bank Rate by 25 bp to 4.00% in a tight 5-4 vote, with dissenters warning of sticky inflation.

  • Sterling jumped 0.8% against AUD, 0.7% versus EUR, and 0.6% versus JPY as markets repriced the easing path.

  • MPC’s split underscores a “data-dependent” stance: further cuts hinge on incoming price and wage prints.

    📊 AUD/CAD Symmetrical Triangle Formation

    • AUD/CAD has coiled between 0.8940 support and 0.9000 resistance, forming a textbook symmetrical triangle.

    • A break above 0.9000 clears the path to 0.9070 (R1) and then the 0.9100 psychological level.

    • A breakdown below 0.8940 risks a slide toward the triangle base at 0.8900 and potentially 0.8860.

Today’s issue blends a high-octane mix of ADP-driven yield moves, Fed chair succession drama, and a BOE decision that lit a rally in sterling—plus a precise AUD/CAD triangle that’s about to snap. Dive into the recap for the full cross-asset pulse, read why Waller’s odds just soared, see what the BOE’s split vote means for GBP, and bookmark the exact levels to trade AUD/CAD’s next big move.

Happy Trading!

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