CPI Calm, Aussie Surge & Must-Watch FX Setups

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FX Rocket Profits
August 14, 2025

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CPI In Line Fuels Risk-On, Aussie Jobs Ignite & Crosses at Key Tests

Markets rallied as July’s US CPI matched forecasts, reinvigorating Fed-cut bets and sparking broad risk-on flows that knocked the dollar lower and saw Bitcoin push through $120K. The Aussie spiked after a robust jobs report lifted full-time employment and nudged RBA easing expectations out to November. Technically, GBP/NZD now challenges long-term resistance around 2.2750, while AUD/JPY extends its downtrend, pivoting at mid-channel support near 95.904. This issue arms you with both the narrative and the price pivots to trade these inflection points with precision.

⚡ Daily Broad Market Recap – August 13, 2025

  • Asia led a global risk-on surge after US CPI met forecasts, sending the S&P 500 to fresh records (up 1.1%) and the Nasdaq higher by 1.4%.

  • Treasury yields dipped to 4.29%, the dollar tumbled as Fed-cut odds jumped, and Bitcoin briefly topped $120K before consolidating.

🔥AUD Rallies After Jobs Report Pushes RBA Rate Cut Odds Toward November

  • Unemployment fell to 4.2% from 4.3%, with employment up 24,500 and full-time positions surging by 60,500.

  • AUD/USD leapt from 0.6540 to 0.6570, buoyed by stronger labor data and softer US dollar amid Fed-cut chatter.

📊 GBP/NZD Is Testing a Long-Term Range Resistance Area

  • GBP/NZD trades around 2.2750, hitting the same ceiling that capped rallies in May and June, just above the R2 pivot at 2.2733.

  • A rejection risks a slide to 2.2650–2.2550, while a breakout could target 2.2900–2.3000.

    📉 Is AUD/JPY Extending Its Downtrend?

    • AUD/JPY fell sharply from 96.50 resistance and now rests on the Pivot Point at 95.90 and mid-channel support.

    • A break below 95.90 risks a move to 95.00 or fresh lows, while a bounce could retest 96.75 and the 97.00 R1.

This issue weaves together today’s risk-on rally fueled by in-line CPI, the Aussie’s jobs-driven burst, and two pivotal chart setups: GBP/NZD at its long-term range ceiling and AUD/JPY at its downtrend floor. Armed with these macro catalysts and precise levels, you’ll navigate August’s FX landscape with both context and conviction.

Happy Trading!

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